China GDP growth
With the escalation of US China trade war, the Chinese economy is facing great difficulties and GDP is going downwards.
“It’s intriguing that the domestic demand part is the weak part – the external demand is not that bad,” said Taimur Baig, chief economist at DBS Group Research, according to CNBC.
For its part, DBS forecasts China’s GDP growth to be “sub-6 percent” currently, Baig said.
Last year, China reported economic growth of 6.5 percent in the third quarter— marking its weakest pace since the global financial crisis. Still, the country’s official growth target for 2018 was around 6.5 percent.
A report by a study group from a very important organization internally painted another picture: China’s factual GDP growth was only 1.67%. And another source even gave a negative percentage. Xiang Songzuo, Deputy Director and Senior Fellow at Center for International Monetary Research in Renmin University of China, said this last month.
Chinese billionaire Miles Kwok has said that China’s GDP growth in the past two years has never exceeded 3.5%.
While fake GDP data remains at the bottom of the list of concerns, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang referred to China’s GDP figures as “man-made and therefore unreliable” in 2007 when he was Party Secretary of Liaoning Province. The premier repeated similar remarks a couple of times in the past decade.
Economic development by GDP growth is an illusion. To measure the national economy with GDP data has been key in strengthening the legitimacy of the communist government. For decades, destruction to the environment and human morale as a result of GDP growth has not be taken seriously.
The good and bad can long be a topic for hot debates if it was allowed in the Chinese society without freedom of speech.
Urban cities, rural areas and consumer confidence
After 40 years, great changes have occurred in China’s cities as well as in rural areas.
Today it is easy to find an urban family with two or more properties, although real estate is unaffordable for most new comers.
In rural areas, although living standards are much lower than urban cities by modern criteria, and many areas lack basic infrastructure, it is not that difficult for people to “find a living”. China has many beautiful countryside areas, clear water and fresh air is not difficult to find. People in extreme poverty have mostly themselves to blame, mostly as a result of ignorance and laziness. Giving people access to basic education is the solution in poor rural areas.
Happiness has little to do with material wealth. People finds great happiness just by living in Hangzhou or Guilin, although in simple or poor living conditions.
Inequality is surely a big problem in China. In 2014, according to an Institute of Social Science Survey by Peking University, income inequality among Chinese mainland citizens has reached severe conditions, with 1% of the Chinese population possessing 1/3 of the country’s wealth.
Today, even while the economy slows, income inequality remains high in China. The wealthy continue to grow richer while lower income households fare only somewhat better than before.
The income inequality was created largely as a result of poor governance. No one would imagine any autocratic government would have fair and favorable policies for the less fortunate. For 70 years of communist rule, the vile Hukou system for residence and absence of a fully functioning land market are two main drivers of rural-urban inequality.
In the western world, one hundred people have one similar story: similar jobs, similar wages, and similar life styles. At time of difficulties, people come to the government for assistance.
In China, one hundred people have one hundred stories. At difficult times, people come to their relatives and friends for help; and help is almost guaranteed, though with hatred or resentment.
In the western world, consumer confidence tells lots of stories. But in China, consumer confidence is a small thing. It can be neglected.
Cars and roads: a country on wheels
In a typical rural village in South Western Guangdong, our investigation has found that nearly 60 percent of households have their own cars or small vans.
In the past five years, China has seen 1.28 million km of rural roads built or renovated, with 99.24 percent of townships and 98.34 percent of villages connected by asphalt or cement roads, according to official figures. Besides the country has the world’s largest and longest network of high speed trains.
For decades, Chinese people had their journeys mostly on foot or by bicycles. China is now a country on wheels.
According to reports in recently, there is a dramatic drop in car sales across the country. The Chinese Association of Automobile Manufacturers said Tuesday that auto sales in China fell 14 percent in November over the same month in 2017.
“This is the first sustained downturn in memory,” said Michael Dunne, CEO of ZoZoGo, a firm that advises automakers on doing business in China, with CNBC.
Michael said, “We would have to go back to the Asian financial crisis in 1998-1999 to see the last time China had flat or down sales for four months or more in a row.” Even though things are really that worse, it won’t be a big deal for the ordinary Chinese.
We still see lots of confidence in the auto industry as Tesla’s new manufacturing plant in China is officially under construction.
When Tesla CEO Elon Musk broke ground on the electric car-maker’s huge factory in Shanghai on Monday, we are not seeing his confidence on communist rule. He is confident that China has a huge population and one of the world’s best road networks. With the new factory, Tesla has a plan to eventually make half a million vehicles in China every year.
Central government and regional autonomy
China is a huge country, with great differences between the urban and rural areas, the east and the west, the north and the south. There are 55 minority nationalities in the country. The communist party must fail if it tries to govern the whole country with only one voice or one single ideology.
For thousands of years, the concept of the “Mandate of Heaven” has been rooted in the minds of the people who hails the governance by clear politics.
In the Zhou Dynasty three thousand years before, there were as many as 800 kingdoms in the country under one emperor. The 800 kings has lots of autonomy in their local governance.
Even in the Warring States Period, there were seven powerful kingdoms in the country. This is one of the periods in Chinese history that built the best civilizations, and when people enjoyed the best freedom of speech.
Almost every Chinese individual is familiar with the first remarks in the Romance of Three Kingdoms, “The world under heaven, after a long period of division, tends to unite; after a long period of union, tends to divide.”
The Communist Party of China has tried to play with its ambitions to always keep itself in power by falsely rewriting history and deceiving its people with the idea of nationalist rejuvenation.
For the well-being of Chinese, a central governance with regional autonomy under a democracy can be a better solution for the whole nation.
Chinese society can be really good without CCP rule
The Chinese Communist Party or CCP is the root cause of many problems and disasters in the country. Its struggle ideology sets the “good” people from the “bad” people and that is against the nature of humanity, and it is the cause for social instability.
After the Qing Dynasty, China was to be reset onto the road of freedom and democracy. But the process was interrupted by the spread of communism.
China can be a democratic republic like most of Europe countries or democratic alliance like the United States. It cannot be a democratic dictatorship as the CCP has declared. When you have a dictatorship, you shall never have a democracy.
With Miles Kwok’s whistle blows of corruption and sex scandals of top CCP officials, those so-called overseas democratic leaders have called for a compromise between Miles Kwok and the CCP, claiming “both sides will be losers”.
We all know that CCP is behind many organized crimes and human rights violations in China. Its cruelty and recklessness have caused numerous disasters to the Chinese people and Chinese traditions.
It is not that we don’t want a “win-win” situation. As China’s most famous novelist Cao Xueqin has said in the Dreams of Red Mansions, “He is the wolf in the Middle Mountain; he tends to be savaging at times of pride”. The nature of the CCP decides that it won’t have a peaceful co-existence with anyone.
Miles Kwok has said repeatedly, CCP must leave China; it is a vicious cult from foreign land. CCP cannot be reformed; it must be eliminated.
With the hardworking and kind-hearted people, we are all sure that Chinese society could be really good without CCP rule.
By Staff writer